SERGEI MEDVEDEV*
Putin's Second Republic: Russian Scenarios

Whither Russia after the presidential elections? Comparing five scenarios of economic and political development, the forecast boils down to a single alternative - Bureaucratic Capitalism (that is, evolution of present conditions) or Authoritarian Modernization. The choice will be driven by external factors, most significantly the oil price, but also by Putin's personal commitment to reform and Westernization.