![]()
|
||
![]()
|
![]() |
Politik und Gesellschaft
Online International Politics and Society 4/2001 |
![]() |
Kunibert Raffer Let Countries Go Bankrupt. The Case for Fair and Transparent Debt Arbitration Lukas Menkhoff Middle Eastern Threats to the Atlantic Community Jürgen Kahl
Kunibert RafferLet Countries Go Bankrupt. The Case for Fair and Transparent Debt ArbitrationFair Shares for Developing Countries in the International
Financial System There
is no doubt that the international financial markets need better regulation
in order to make financial crises less likely and their repercussions
less detrimental to welfare. The debate about the reforms of the international
financial system, however, is excessively oriented towards the priorities
of the highly developed countries. The markets are to be made "efficient"
in terms of the primary objectives of these countries. Such efficiency
is not necessarily in the interest of developing countries as well.
After all, in view of their underdevelopment, which can only be tackled
over the long term, large segments of their economies are much less
able to share in the advantages of "well functioning" global
financial markets than companies in the industrial countries. Also,
developing countries are much less able to protect themselves against
the remaining dangers of crises. They therefore place the priority
on different areas of reform than the tone-setting G-5. What is important
for them is to maintain traditional credit-granting mechanisms for
the foreseeable future, even if they are not up to the demands of
the modern financial markets. Their manufacturing companies are also
far less able to adapt to rapidly shifting financial market trends
than those of industrial countries. It is therefore important for
these countries to be able to fence themselves off from the international
financial markets to a certain extent. Less free financial markets
are more appropriate for them than for industrial countries. Because
of their much higher vulnerability, developing countries also have
a greater interest in stabilizing macroeconomic intervention in the
global financial market activities. For the industrial countries,
and the United States in particular, such intervention primarily represents
a restriction on their own economic policy options. They are not reliant
on the stabilizing effects, for example of exchange rates. An international
financial system which neglects the objectives of the developing countries
is unfair. No matter how efficient it is in the view of the industrial
countries, it cannot meet with acceptance. In order to make it fairer,
the developing countries would need to be given a greater say in the
current debate about reform. Carlos Santiso
Development Co-operation
and the Promotion of Democratic Governance: Promises and Dilemmas
In the past, the promotion
of democracy was based on erroneous approaches, i.e. the identification
of democracy with its liberal Western version, the technically abridged
equivalence of democratization with the design of institutional models,
and the assumption that democratization works in a linear and predictable
sequence of stages. In the past, these approaches toward promoting democratization
in developing countries and countries in transition were based on a
three-pronged democracy template: firstly the promotion of elections
and (to a much lesser extent) of political parties, secondly the design
of institutions to act as checks and balances for the executive (courts,
parliaments, etc.), and thirdly support for civil society. In contrast,
too little attention was paid to the costs of democratization in poor
countries with many priorities and few resources. Also, assistance towards
democratization was provided completely independently of economic development
assistance. Now, in the concept of "good governance", which
has become more important in terms of development policy, there is an
approach which can overcome the separation of political and economic
assistance and can place the interplay of economic and political reforms
at the heart of development policy. But above all, in its "benign
idealism", the promotion of democracy has overlooked the fact that,
in the recipient countries, it is working with political power structures
which are resistant to democratic reforms and are in a position to undermine
them. Those promoting democracy will have to take account of the power
relationships and interests in which democratic institutions are embedded.Stephan BöckenfördeMilitary Force as a Means of Future US Foreign Policy For the United States, military operations remain a means of enforcing national interests which – since 1947 – has been linked to the maintenance of the world order. The next few years are likely to witness a policy of "selective engagement" which – in view of budget constraints – ultimately implies a reduction of foreign operations, but does permit commando operations or air attacks on specific individual targets. The United States will take advantage of this "break" to press ahead with the development of high-tech weapons and armaments in space. The focus of the traditional conflicts between different countries will in future be in Asia. The prime danger is seen as lying in China’s intentions, but the direct juxtaposition of a concentration of power with power vacuums in Asia will also stimulate crises. Furthermore, there will be a large number of new types of conflict which can lead to different scenarios for military operations and which the United States – as the directly and indirectly affected world order power – will have to prepare for. As a consequence of this extension to the catalogue of demands made on the military, it is aspiring to "full spectrum dominance". This includes highly mobile forces which can make greater use of long-distance or unmanned weapons, thereby minimizing their own casualties. This would equip the United States for traditional inter-state conflicts. However, for "post-national" conflicts, the answers are still lacking; here, the emphasis at present is mainly on special operation forces, but also on various private companies. Since the United States wishes to drastically reduce its military involvement in Europe, the Europeans will in future have to cope with their security responsibilities without the Americans. On the other hand, in terms of threats and military options, they will have to adjust to developments which are largely dictated by the United States. Harald
Müller
Middle Eastern
Threats to the Atlantic Community
The Middle East contains some of the most dangerous and longest-burning conflicts in the world. Given the presence of weapons of mass destruction in several Middle Eastern countries, there is a potential threat to countries outside the region. Israel is the only undeclared nuclear weapon state in the Middle East, while Iraq was close to becoming one. Iran is generally regarded as possessing chemical weapons, the same as Syria and probably Libya. Egypt is very active in nuclear non-proliferation, but is working on chemical and biological weapons. In general, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction has been stagnant. Of all conflict scenarios, only one affects a European country in a direct way: Turkey is a potential target for the Iraq and for Syria, due to its role in the Gulf War, to military cooperation with Israel, to incursions into Iraq territory and to the Ataturk Dam project. Another country that has a serious security problem with several neighbors is Iran, and if it remains economically and politically isolated, it is likely to build up weapons of mass destruction. Therefore, a critical policy dialogue seems to be the best way to prevent an escalation that might jeopardize regional stability. A popular scenario is a regional conflict that interrupts the flow of crude oil with devastating consequences for the world economy, provoking a Western military intervention - i.e. Gulf War, part two. But the highly asymmetrical distribution of destructive capabilities makes this scenario unlikely. While the European countries rely upon diplomacy, arms control and multilateral regimes to defuse the security threats, the United States accept international regimes only as long as they do not constrain American options. In recent years, the U.S. has given priority to military responses. In the conflict over Palestine, Europeans tend to be more critical towards actual Israeli politics than the USA. This includes Israel's refusal to discuss its nuclear policies, which is bound to diminish Arab cooperation with non-proliferation. While the European countries see no immediate threat to their national security coming from the Middle East, the US regards the Iranian and Iraqi missiles as a serious threat that calls for military countermeasures. The US-European disagreement reflects a deep cleavage about principles and visions for a new world order, which could develop into a serious problem for the Atlantic community. Jürgen
Kahl
The Great Leap
into Globalization: China on the Verge of WTO Membership
The decision to join the WTO is the
most important step towards reform taken by the Chinese leadership
since the beginning of economic opening and liberalization. It makes
the gradual restructuring of the Chinese economy into a market-based
system irreversible. The agreed tariff cuts and the reductions in
non-tariff trade barriers will boost competition on the Chinese market.
The necessary structural reforms which will go hand in hand with the
opening up to international competition will improve the preconditions
for sustainable economic growth, but will also bring social hardship
with a potentially destabilizing effect. So far, foreign investment
and the lion's share of export business has been concentrated on the
coastal region, whilst the Chinese hinterland is hardly integrated
into these modern trade and investment flows at all. This has exacerbated
the regional and social disparities. The liberalization of the internal
market will cause further social problems which, in view of the limited
scope for the state to alleviate the adjustment process with social
transfers, will particularly affect employees of state-owned companies.
This will impact on the interests of a part of society which is important
for the continuing rule of the Communist Party, and it may lead to
significant changes in the political system. Also, the introduction
of international standards of law and the breaking up of the links
between state/party and commerce will increase the pressure on the
Chinese leadership to open up the political system to more codetermination
and to bring it into line with the economic system, which will increasingly
be directed by independent decision-making and by competition. At
international level, China will in future have a say about the rules
of global competition. The political weight and the ambitions which
China is bringing with it into the WTO as an upcoming economic and
regional power will create fresh challenges for the ability of the
World Trade Organization to form a consensus and for the functioning
of the dispute-settlement process. |
|
![]() |
© Friedrich Ebert Stiftung | net edition malte.michel | 10/2001 |