Summary — Issue 01 / 2004 Stephen F. Szabo: Germany and the United States after Iraq. From Alliance to Alignment
		The crisis in the relationship between the United States and Germany was formally brought to an end with the meeting between George W. Bush and Gerhard Schröder on the fringes of the UN General Assembly in September 2003. Yet the relationship will not revert to what it used to be and this is due not only to personalities in the current regimes. The strikingly rapid and sharp deterioration of the relationship in the Iraq crisis signals underlying, longer term structural and secular changes. The most important change is the radical alteration of the strategic landscape after the Cold War, leading to a sovereign and reunited Germany no longer so dependent on the United States. Furthermore, a generational change has brought about a certain “guilt fatigue” in Germany which is combined with a declining sense of gratitude for the role of the United States during the Cold War. On top of this the Iraq crisis dented the image of the United States in Germany. Opinion polls showed a growing anti-Americanism in a country which used to be the most pro-American large country in Europe. The economic relationship is still dense and stable, but it cannot replace the strategic and cultural bond. All this means that the relationship will in future no longer be based on sentiment, friendship, or common values but rather on cold calculations of interest. In this respect, however, we can observe a certain degree of alignment between Germany and the United States, stemming from the lessons learned in the Iraq crisis. It is possible to identify an agenda around which a new strategic consensus is likely to emerge. First, as regards the proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction the divergence over strategy remains deep. Yet there is also some rapprochement as Germany accepts the need to underpin a non-proliferation regime by the threat of force, and the United States is more willing to accept a multilateral approach. With regard to failed states and interventions, doctrines diverge equally, but both sides see the need to develop criteria and procedures for dealing with the problem. On the regional agenda, the prospects for German–American cooperation regarding Eastern Europe are promising, given converging interests such as on NATO enlargement or Russia. With regard to the Greater Middle East, Europe and the United States have always diverged in terms of interests and strategies, but both have a common stake in stabilization of the region, which may facilitate cooperation. The key to the future of the relationship, however, is likely to be broad global governance questions, such as environment, international law, and international trade. But even if the United States return to a policy of supporting international rules and institutions, it may be too late to salvage the Atlanticist foundation which reassured Germany’s European partners. Thus, a deepening of the French–German alliance in a broader European project is needed to compensate for what used to be the Atlantic pillar.
		<< Back to Summaries
	© Friedrich Ebert Stiftung   net edition: malte.michel | 06/2004   Top