The transformation process in the five Central Asian republics has had varying degrees of success since independence 14 years ago. They do have one thing in common, however: their autocratic governments are bureaucratizing politics and society and distrust their citizens. For example, there was massive manipulation in the parliamentary elections at the end of last year and the beginning of this one. In Kyrgyzstan the people rose up and chased the president out of the country, while in Uzbekistan the government crushed a citizens’ uprising by force of arms.

Regional cooperation is the exception in Central Asia. This has a negative effect on the economy, above all those of the small republics of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. Even raw material rich Kazakhstan is unable to compensate for this – although Kazakhstan is the region’s economic engine it has no traction power. Instead of using the infrastructure from the Soviet period on a regional basis borders have been closed and import duties levied, while the belief persists that a market economy can be planned.

Central Asia was awarded a second opportunity for a democratic transformation by heightened world attention in connection with the war against the Taliban in neighboring Afghanistan, but this has passed. Today the window on the West is no more than a chink. China and Russia have gained in influence. The USA, which has had little success with its simplistic democratic models, has lost ground, as has the EU, which lacks a clear political orientation.