Preliminary version

JOHN STEINBRUNER
The Consequences of Kosovo

The NATO action in Kosovo threatens severe consequences for peace in Europe. It is still possible, however, to turn the course of events into a constructive direction. To do so, it is essential to recognise the errors which have been made and to correct them without delay. NATO must stop the bombardment of targets in Yugoslavia and never resume it. Bombs can end Serbian repression of the Albanians only in the very long term. The large number of victims which they claim cannot be justified. In view of the now endemic conflict between the ethnic groups in Kosovo and the absence of any political solutions which could provide a basis for consensus, the only way to restore fundamental legal norms would be initially to deploy an armed order-keeping force. It would have to draw on NATO´s military capacity but would require a UN mandate. It will be difficult to find lasting political solutions but in the long term it would certainly be more constructive if direct peace-making efforts did not take the easy route of separating the ethnic groups but from the start insisted on the administrative integrity of Kosovo under the rule of law. This would be only a first step, however. The virulence of the ethnic conflict has its origin in the extreme poverty and economic isolation of the whole region. The West is called upon not only to repair the war damage but to help to set off a process of rapid economic development and to support it in the long term. It must, for example, open its own markets to future exports from the region. The Kosovo conflict also reveals the weaknesses in current peace policy. In a globalised world the international community has a strong interest in ensuring that local conflicts do not escalate and that fundamental legal norms are observed throughout the world. But so far it has lacked the resolution to take effective action. It has looked on idly as escalation processes have been building up. The new imperative of the world-wide observance of fundamental legal standards has not yet been reconciled with the principle of national sovereignty. If no constructive turn to the Kosovo crisis comes forth - and there are many indicators that this will in fact be the case - the unsolved Albanian question threatens to destabilise the whole of the Balkan region in the long term. The effects on developments in Russia are even worse. The creeping antagonisation of this state by recklessly expansionist Western power policy - as Russians perceive it - reaches a new level with the NATO intervention in Yugoslavia. Russia will feel increasingly obliged to create a military counter-weight to NATO. The country´s desperate economic situation means, however, that any Russian rearmament process would be forced to concentrate on nuclear combat potential. The country cannot afford more. Escalation of conflict would then turn into a mortal danger for Europe.