Time, safety and stability key to refugee return to Syria

In Germany, the debate about the return of Syrian refugees has overlooked two crucial points. First, the focus on repatriation numbers is more likely to diminish the willingness and ability of refugees to return to Syria. Second, at this point in time, assistance for refugees to return to Syria cannot have any sustainable effect.

Deportability or empowering refugees to return voluntarily

The ongoing debate about the return of Syrian refugees reveals the political tension between the feasibility of repatriation and the prospects for (re)integration. Calls to increase the number of refugees being repatriated and speed up the process ignore the fact that Germany’s practice of determining who qualifies for protection is already designed to respond flexibly to changes in the countries of origin. designed to respond flexibly to changes in the countries of origin. While in 2015, 99.7 percent of Syrian asylum seekers were granted protection under the Geneva Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees, in the first half of 2024, 77 percent were eligible for what is known as subsidiary protection only. Both types of protection status must be renewed at different intervals and can be revoked subject to fundamental and durable change in the situation in Syria. Premature revocation while obstacles to repatriation still exist would mean that those affected have less protection without in fact increasing the number of returns, as seen from the Iraq situation in 2004.

Policies aimed at achieving “deportability” and increasing the number of returns make it more difficult for refugees to independently create the conditions enabling them to engage constructively with their country of origin and/or return voluntarily. After all, this would require a secure legal status and integration prospects. In this sense, the suspension of asylum proceedings is counterproductive, ultimately prolonging the duration of the asylum process, even for vulnerable refugees, and undermines the integration of new arrivals, which is also a prerequisite for permanent right of residence. Returning people to their countries of origin unprepared can – much like when they fled in the first place – deprive them of employment opportunities and networks as well as reduce the value of their human capital. Twelve percent of Syrians living in Germany with protected status were in fact born here and one fifth of all people with an immigration background from Syria are currently in education or training. Enabling them to achieve their life goals increases their prospects of integration and successful voluntary and independent return to Syria. 

Recent proposals by the German government to allow Syrian refugees to temporarily return to Syria without losing their protected status in Germany are a step in the right direction. In light of the uncertainties surrounding Syria’s ongoing transition, introducing flexible residency models that recognize the unique potential of refugees as bridge-builders between Germany and Syria would be groundbreaking. Forward-thinking policymaking should also focus on individuals with limited prospects of remaining in Germany if their protection status is revoked, providing targeted support through measures such as inclusive, transnational vocational training.

The success of any return depends not only on thorough preparation but also on stabilizing conditions on the ground. Syrian refugees can apply the skills and expertise they have gained in Germany to support Syria’s reconstruction and should be actively involved in relevant discussions and initiatives. Moreover, the Syrian diaspora has cultivated a vibrant civil society, establishing numerous organizations across various sectors outside the constraints of the Assad regime. These networks offer valuable impetus for political transformation, and German foreign, security, and development policies should not overlook the opportunities that lie in engaging and mobilizing these resources.

Financial assistance for returns to (post-)conflict regions usually ineffective

The proposal to create incentives for refugees to leave Germany and to remove Syria from the list of countries to which voluntary return within the REAG/GARP programme is currently not supported has so far met with virtually unanimous approval. Assisted return to Syria was already possible before, but only from federal states with their own repatriation support programme. In this context, it is important to note that neither the joy at the fall of Assad nor the desire to see relatives again or even frustration over integration barriers constitute a carefully measured decision to return. Moreover, the all-important question is what this kind of support for return and reintegration can actually achieve.

Repatriation assistance can help people bridge the initial, usually difficult, phase they face after returning to their country of origin. If returnees can fulfil the prerequisites and bring some additional resources of their own, support – in stable contexts – can also help them build a life for themselves in the long term. That said, scientific studies on the effectiveness of reintegration assistance on the whole have found little evidence of measurable positive impact on the course of reintegration, pointing instead to the greater role played by personal, social and context-related factors.

There is clear evidence that context-related conditions such as ongoing violence and instability, institutions undergoing transformation, a weak economy and lack of infrastructure a) cannot be influenced by repatriation assistance and b) quickly thwart reintegration efforts whether they are government-backed or not. For now, forced returns would leave Syrian refugees with no choice but touse their savings and perhaps even the government reintegration assistance for immediate survival, which would see these funds evaporate with no long-term effect. At the same time, families in Syria would be deprived of the financial support from abroad they so urgently need, especially during times of upheaval. Larger-scale refugee returns could also result in new tensions and conflicts due to unresolved property ownership issues and increase the number of people dependent on humanitarian assistance, which is already high due to the challenging economic climate. If we want to avoid renewed displacement, we will need to be patient when it comes to the return of Syrian refugees.

Ruth Vollmer, Selina Engelberth,  Dr Osman Bahadır Dinçer and Dr Zeynep Şahin-Mencütek work and research for the bicc (Bonn International Centre for Conflict Studies).