Trump and the Threat of Withdrawal from the Paris Agreement: What Does This Mean for International Climate Processes?

More than ever, the global community is called to stand united for climate justice and to advance global solutions – especially at a time when U.S. policy is steering toward another withdrawal from the Paris Agreement.

Even as virtually all participants in the 29th Conference of the Parties (COP29) were likely paying close attention to the results of the U.S. presidential election, it is a virtual certainty that the lion’s share of those casting their ballots in the U.S. had very little interest in the international climate conference. Climate policy, particularly at the international level, played no role whatsoever in the campaign – neither for the Democrats nor for the Republicans.

Fears are now growing that the victory of climate-change denier Donald Trump in the country that is responsible for the second-highest emissions in the world after China will lead to the failure of COP29. The weekend following Trump’s election, it became known that his team was already making preparations to again withdraw from the Paris Agreement. On the one hand, some comfort is offered by the fact that Trump withdrew from the Paris Agreement during his first term in office as well, and the negotiations nevertheless continued apace. On the other hand, though, the much worse geopolitical situation this time around could trigger a domino effect of countries – particularly those governed by right-wing populists – likewise turning their backs on the deal. It is also unclear what might happen should Trump decide to abandon the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC) altogether. Such a move would be a novelty, and it could take years to clarify what the process might look like due to the expected legal challenges.

The Future of Climate Financing Under a New U.S. Administration

The climate negotiations in Baku, to be sure, will take place while Biden is still in office. But as the head of a lame duck administration, he will hardly be in a position to join far-reaching agreements. This won’t necessarily have a negative impact on the most important focus of the negotiations – a climate finance deal – since a consensus decision of all signatory states is necessary and will remain valid for years. This resolution would retain vailidity even if the U.S. were to cease contributing to climate funding. And here, it should be emphasized that the U.S., when measured against the country’s past emissions, has never paid a fair contribution to climate funding, even under Democratic administrations.

However, more ambitious steps toward reducing emissions are now likely to become extremely difficult in Baku, since any such steps would have a direct impact on the national policies of individual signatory states, including on U.S. climate and energy policy. In particular, this includes raising the ambitions of national climate protection plans, which must be updated by February. But a stronger commitment to moving away from fossil fuels and toward renewable energy sources is also likely to be difficult at COP29.

Global Solidarity and Progressive Leadership: Now More Than Ever for Climate Protection

It is thus all the more important for progressive countries to form an international coalition for global climate protection. Doing so could generate momentum for leadership from other progressive actors in combination with international civil society. This could even involved important actors such as the EU or Brazil, which is the next COP host country.

The first U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Agreement in 2017 clearly demonstrated that at the subnational level, in the various states, the shift to renewable energy sources in the U.S. will continue apace regardless of who is in the White House. The process has proven to make economic sense, accounting for 6 percent of U.S. GDP in 2023 and creating a steady stream of new jobs. Such benefits have been made even clearer by the Inflation Reduction Act, which has provided billions of dollars of support to renewable energy projects in the U.S., thus providing an economic boost to Republican controlled states as well. It is therefore unlikely that Trump will reverse the measures, since doing so would further cement Chinese dominance in this important economic sector.

Finally, it is vital to remain optimistic, since international climate policy is not an all-or-nothing proposition. Every fraction of every degree by which global warming can be slowed is crucial. Even if the U.S. withdraws from the Paris Agreement as promised, it is important, now more than ever, to continue the fight against the climate crisis together – despite the challenges. And for lack of better alternatives, the international climate conference remains the most important instrument for doing so – with or without the United States.