Tiergarten Conference 2024

The West African coastal countries are increasingly affected by growing insecurity from the northern neighbouring states of the Sahel. Following military coups, the Sahel states of Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali have not only become more insecure and unstable, but also more challenging international partners – military stabilisation missions in this region, including with German participation, have all failed.

Ghana ist one of the coastal countries that is already benefiting from a great deal of military and material support. At the same time, however, Ghana is currently also experiencing a structural economic crisis, which has significantly restricted the government’s room for manoeuvre. On 7 December 2024, competitive elections will be held in Ghana, the outcome of which will be of great importance for the consolidation or continued weakening of democracy in the country. The results of these elections are also something of a litmus test for the wider region.

Panel talk with:

What consequences will the US presidential election have for the Indo-Pacific and Europe’s involvement in the region? Is there a risk of an intensification of great power rivalry? What would this mean for the countries in the Indo-Pacific? And how should Europe respond? Do we need a transatlantic Indo-Pacific strategy or European “strategic autonomy”? What are the chances of establishing a sustainable security architecture in the Indo-Pacific and what role could Europe play in this?

The German public debate on the war in Ukraine is characterised by a desire for clarity. However, political events of recent months show that (international) politics is unlikely to meet this need. Trump’s election campaign and legitimate demands from countries in the Global South for a change in priorities or better still a ceasefire to freeze the conflict or even a quick end to the war only coincide with Germany’s interests to a limited extent. What will the outcome of the US elections mean for the war in Ukraine and security in Europe? What role can democratic Europe play with regard to security in Eastern Europe, despite the rise of right-wing parties we are seeing here and worldwide? And what form must social democratic foreign and security policy now take in order to have a positive impact on the challenges faced by Eastern Europe?

This panel will analyse the security challenges from a Palestinian, Israeli and regional perspective and identify the potential consequences of the US presidential elections for the Middle East. What American foreign policy scenarios might we expect for the Middle East conflict? What does this mean for the role of Germany and the European Union? This workshop will discuss ideas for a social democratic approach to foreign policy in the Middle East conflict.

Scenario: The re-election of Donald Trump exposes the rupture of various regulatory ideas in the Western Balkans. The Western Balkans are caught between international interests and geopolitical strategies.

This workshop will shed light on these dynamics in the context of a hypothetical re-election of Donald Trump. Four main perspectives will be discussed:

1. The EU, represented by Germany: An approach focused on social transformation, democratisation and development. This perspective emphasises peaceful conflict resolution, the importance of smaller states and their role as actors in international relations.

2. The USA under Trump: An imperial policy that emphasises Serbia as a regional power and favours deals driven by realpolitik, even at the cost of shifting borders. This transactional approach contrasts strongly with the transformative approach of the European ideal.

3. Elite conflicts in the Western Balkans: In the countries of the Western Balkans, tension prevails between pro-European reform forces and ethno-nationalist chauvinism. Political and economic conflicts are directly influenced by external powers.

4. Influence of third countries: The influence of countries such as Turkey, Russia and China on the Western Balkans will be analysed, with a focus on their strategies and objectives. The aim of this workshop is to sensitise participants to the complex geopolitical and regulatory dynamics in the Western Balkans and to discuss the impact of a possible Trump re-election on the region.