People over profits

This year’s United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP29) started with high expectations for climate finance, particularly the New Collective Quantified Goals (NCQGs). But climate finance is not just a stand-alone issue in the negotiations—it also permeates other topics. At COP28, the UAE adapted its work programme to the agenda topic of the connection between transitioning away from fossil fuels and the theme of a just transition or Just Transition Work Programme (JTWP). The main means of implementation for this work programme revolve around three pillars: finance, technology transfer and capacity building.

Ultimately, how the issues are resolved always comes down to money. We have seen how the parties at both SB 60 in Bonn in June 2024 and SB 61 held during the first week of COP29 failed to agree on the final text in a heated discussion. At the SB 60, the parties were still not able to reach an agreement, even though the discussions continued late into the night. Instead of presenting a draft text, the Subsidiary Bodies (SBs) emerged with a procedural informal note (a non-binding summary of discussions), acknowledging the draft text as a preliminary document that parties could use again at COP29 and a draft conclusion which listed the next steps we need to take in the run-up to COP29. However, the lack of results or consensus on the TW text after SB 60 has significantly impacted the negotiations on the just transition in the first week of COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, which ended with no consensus on the text. Nor was any agreement reached on the JTWP by the Subsidiary Body for Implementation (SBI) to the Conference of the Parties which had served as the meeting of the Parties to the Paris Agreement (CMA) and the discussion of the in-depth technical issues also had to be postponed until SB 62 in June 2025. The only notable achievement for civil society last week was that the care economy was mentioned in the JTWP text, this text has yet to be formally agreed upon.

Is there enough money for transition?

Civil society always raises the same question: Is there enough money available for the transition? The CSO constituency urged for human rights to be placed at the heart of the JTWP. What would this mean in the context of critical mineral extractions in countries such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, or for the genocidal occupation that has seen people relentlessly killed through the war machine in Palestine, Sudan, Yemen, Syria and Lebanon? Transitions that place people at the heart should be part of the discussion. People cannot thrive when they are facing genocide or ethnic cleansing at the hands of war machines and excessive military spending. A fundamental step towards achieving people-centric just transitions is to foster international cooperation to end wars and acts of genocide. Parties must end fossil fuel subsidies and redirect military spending towards investments that deliver positive outcomes for people and the planet. How can parties consistently highlight a lack of financial resources for the JTWP and fossil fuels phase-out, while global military spending is projected to reach 2.4 trillion dollars in 2024? This is the same amount that civil society is requesting that developed countries provide as grants—not loans—for equitable climate action.

How can civil society place the developed countries under pressure?

The UNFCCC’s Conference of the Parties (COP) traditionally designates a “Blue Zone”, where all accredited party and observer delegates can hold actions to present their demands, and frustrations, highlighting key issues and sharing their collective struggles. At this year’s COP29, delegates in the Blue Zone experienced extreme restrictions regarding the messages they could share and voice through their events. Despite these challenges, civil society demonstrated resilience and managed to organise multiple events every day in the very limited designated areas of the Blue Zone.

This year, actions on JTWP centred around key issues such as the links between fossil fuel subsidies, war, military spending and the profits derived from militarisation.  Additional focus areas included mineral extractions, the care economy, labour rights and crucially, outlining a roadmap for the JTWP.  When it comes to JTWP, over the course of the last year, the CSO observer constituency has been working on submissions for the work programme in the run-up to COP, as organising actions and mobilisation could have a huge impact on the text during the negotiations. For instance, the Women and Gender constituency (WGC) have prioritised the work on the care economy in their text and as a result of their mobilisation and tireless bilateral efforts, this topic featured strongly in the just transition negotiations in COP29. It was not an easy task for the WGC or the other CSO observer constituencies and they still have plenty of work to do, especially since COP29 concluded with no obvious consensus on the text for the JTWP. Over the years, civil society organisations (CSOs) have also witnessed historical decisions during COP. The Paris Agreement (PA) was one of those significant moments, achieved by CSOs through years of campaigning.  Similarly, the text on loss and damage was a significant result achieved by CSOs blocking negotiations during COP27.

Consequently, at COP29, CSOs expected no less than an agreement by the parties on the process for the submissions and elements of the JTWP. By March–May 2025, they expect the submissions to be compiled into a unified document. Thereafter, at the 62nd Session of the Subsidiary Bodies (SB 62), a contact group must be established, tasked with refining the compiled text and reaching an agreement on an informal note. This process is anticipated to culminate at COP30, where parties should agree on decisions regarding tangible, actionable outcomes of the JTWP.

What are CSOs’ expectations for JTWP?

Civil society organisations still have a long year of intensive work preparing submissions for the JTWP ahead, but the most important moment will be the upcoming 62nd Session of the Subsidiary Bodies (SB 62) in June 2025. This will be crucial in preparing for COP30 with the parties agreeing on a draft decision to negotiate on for COP30. The CSO constituency expects the parties to develop a comprehensive decision framework with three primary focus areas. First, the draft will outline decisions that can take effect immediately following COP30. Second, it will propose initiatives that require longer development and implementation timelines. Third, the document will address governance considerations for the just transition within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) context.

Next couple of months critical for the JTWP

The next couple of months are extremely critical for the JTWP as they will determine whether or not the parties will advance this working programme. One of the key factors in moving the JTWP forward is an inclusive and effective COP presidency that works with parties and ensures no one is left behind, particularly to move past the hustle that was seen at COP29. The willingness of developed countries to accept the historical responsibilities for the climate crisis and pay their climate debts is crucial. It is also essential to focus on the means of implementation for the just transition, i.e. technology transfer, capacity building and finances. The discussions usually end up going down a rabbit hole when it comes to finances because developed countries do not want to accept their responsibilities, claiming there is insufficient money available for the transition, despite the fact that the financial profits are directed into fossil fuel subsidies, militarisation and colonisation.