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By the time of this year's Tiergarten Conference on 14 November, the US presidential election will have taken place. A new administration and perhaps a new foreign policy will be in place.
We will discuss what impact the elections will have on security challenges in Europe and the world, and what changes we can anticipate in the global order.
In addition to the situation in Europe, our focus will be on the countries of the Global South, which are increasingly making legitimate demands to help shape the future of global world order. We are at the dawn of a multipolar age. And with this development comes a new global dynamic. Many new alliances and partnerships are emerging – others are dissolving and being replaced.
In the non-public expert discussion of the Tiergarten Conference 2024, we will explore, with international experts from politics, academia and civil society, how Germany and Europe can contribute to promoting cooperation and solving conflicts worldwide in times of global disorder.
In the evening, everyone will be invited to attend the public Tiergarten Talk with Lars Klingbeil and others, where we will discuss the question ‘The USA has voted. Implications for the Global South’. We will be joined by high-profile, international guests.
Peer Teschendorf030 26935-7729Peer.Teschendorf(at)fes.de
Susanne Böhme030 269 35-7416Susanne.Boehme(at)fes.de
The question of whether everything is genuinely secure is more relevant today than ever. The outcome of the 2024 US elections will determine the future course of the country’s foreign policy. Will the US remain a reliable partner in the multilateral order? Or will it increasingly come into conflict with China and refocus on the Indo-Pacific region, leaving other parts of the world out in the cold? The election result could have far-reaching consequences – not only for the war in Ukraine and Europe's security, but also for challenges in the Middle East, Africa and Asia. At the Tiergarten Conference 2024, we will explore these questions with experts and the Federal Minister for Economic Cooperation and Development, Svenja Schulze, and deepen the discussions in various workshops . Together with politicians and academics from the affected regions, the challenges in Eastern Europe, the Balkans, Africa, Asia and the Middle East will be discussed. With Lars Klingbeil, Chairman of the Social Democratic Party Germany, we will discuss how Germany and Europe should react to the changing geopolitical situation. Participation is by invitation only.
The USA has voted and Europe must prepare itself for significant changes in US policy, because a lot depends on it for us in terms of foreign, security and economic policy. But does the same also apply to the countries of the Global South? How are developments in the United States viewed there? How will the election results be received? The Global South, in particular, is under increasing pressure due to crises and conflicts, the changing geopolitical situation and the growing impact of climate change. In this context, do the countries in the regions of the Global South expect a change in US foreign policy to have an impact on the challenges they face? What does the potentially escalating conflict between the two major world powers China and the US mean for them? And what do they expect from their European partners in these circumstances? These are the questions that will be discussed by our guests Lars Klingbeil, Olumide Abimbola, Nicole Cardoch Ramos, Arif Havas Oegroseno and Katrin Bennhold.
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Dr Sabine Fandrych, Secretary General of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung
Michael Kimmage, Professor, Catholic University of America
Jana Puglierin, Head of Berlin Office, European Council on Foreign Relations
Ivan Briscoe, Senior Director for Policy, International Crisis Group, UK
Svenja Schulze, Federal Minister for Economic Cooperation and Development
Moderation: Christos Katsioulis, Head of the Regional Office for Cooperation and Peace, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Vienna
Break
The West African coastal countries are increasingly affected by growing insecurity from the northern neighbouring states of the Sahel. Following military coups, the Sahel states of Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali have not only become more insecure and unstable, but also more challenging international partners – military stabilisation missions in this region, including with German participation, have all failed.
Ghana ist one of the coastal countries that is already benefiting from a great deal of military and material support. At the same time, however, Ghana is currently also experiencing a structural economic crisis, which has significantly restricted the government’s room for manoeuvre. On 7 December 2024, competitive elections will be held in Ghana, the outcome of which will be of great importance for the consolidation or continued weakening of democracy in the country. The results of these elections are also something of a litmus test for the wider region.
Panel talk with:
Lisa Tschörner, Conflict Researcher, German Institute for International and Security Affairs
Karamba Diaby, Member of the German Bundestag
Moderation: Henrik Maihack, Head of the Africa Department, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Berlin
Rapporteur: Martin Güttler, Resident Representative, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Ghana
What consequences will the US presidential election have for the Indo-Pacific and Europe’s involvement in the region? Is there a risk of an intensification of great power rivalry? What would this mean for the countries in the Indo-Pacific? And how should Europe respond? Do we need a transatlantic Indo-Pacific strategy or European “strategic autonomy”? What are the chances of establishing a sustainable security architecture in the Indo-Pacific and what role could Europe play in this?
Charmaine Misalucha-Willoughby, Associate Professor, Department for International Studies, De La Salle Universität, Philippines
Thitinan Pongsudhirak, Professor, International Relations, Political Science Faculty and Senior Fellow, Institute of Security and International Studies, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand
Christoph Schmid, Member of the German Bundestag
Moderation: Mirco Günther, Head of the Asia-Pacific Department, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Berlin
Rapporteur: Marie Schröter, Resident Representative, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Philippines
The German public debate on the war in Ukraine is characterised by a desire for clarity. However, political events of recent months show that (international) politics is unlikely to meet this need. Trump’s election campaign and legitimate demands from countries in the Global South for a change in priorities or better still a ceasefire to freeze the conflict or even a quick end to the war only coincide with Germany’s interests to a limited extent. What will the outcome of the US elections mean for the war in Ukraine and security in Europe? What role can democratic Europe play with regard to security in Eastern Europe, despite the rise of right-wing parties we are seeing here and worldwide? And what form must social democratic foreign and security policy now take in order to have a positive impact on the challenges faced by Eastern Europe?
Felix Hett, Resident Representative, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Kiew
Nils Schmid, Member of the German Bundestag
Alexey Yusupov, Head of Russia Programme, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung
Moderation: Lisa Gürth, Desk Officer, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung
This panel will analyse the security challenges from a Palestinian, Israeli and regional perspective and identify the potential consequences of the US presidential elections for the Middle East. What American foreign policy scenarios might we expect for the Middle East conflict? What does this mean for the role of Germany and the European Union? This workshop will discuss ideas for a social democratic approach to foreign policy in the Middle East conflict.
Amr Hamzawy, Director Middle East Programme, Carnegie Endowment
Ehud Eiran, Expert, DiploMeds - The Council for Mediterranean Diplomacy
Niels Annen, Parliamentary State Secretary, Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development
Sanae Abdi, Member of the German Bundestag
Moderation: Friederike Stolleis, Desk Officer, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung
Rapporteur: Maria Dellasega, designated Resident Representative, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Palestine
Scenario: The re-election of Donald Trump exposes the rupture of various regulatory ideas in the Western Balkans. The Western Balkans are caught between international interests and geopolitical strategies.
This workshop will shed light on these dynamics in the context of a hypothetical re-election of Donald Trump. Four main perspectives will be discussed:
1. The EU, represented by Germany: An approach focused on social transformation, democratisation and development. This perspective emphasises peaceful conflict resolution, the importance of smaller states and their role as actors in international relations.
2. The USA under Trump: An imperial policy that emphasises Serbia as a regional power and favours deals driven by realpolitik, even at the cost of shifting borders. This transactional approach contrasts strongly with the transformative approach of the European ideal.
3. Elite conflicts in the Western Balkans: In the countries of the Western Balkans, tension prevails between pro-European reform forces and ethno-nationalist chauvinism. Political and economic conflicts are directly influenced by external powers.
4. Influence of third countries: The influence of countries such as Turkey, Russia and China on the Western Balkans will be analysed, with a focus on their strategies and objectives. The aim of this workshop is to sensitise participants to the complex geopolitical and regulatory dynamics in the Western Balkans and to discuss the impact of a possible Trump re-election on the region.
Radmila Šekerinska, Vice President, Party of European Socialists, North Macedonia
Adi Ćerimagić, Expert, European Stability Initiative (ESI)
Donika Emini, Executive Director of the CiviKos Platform, Kosovo
René Schlee, Head of the Regional Office Dialogue Southeast Europe, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Sarajevo
Moderation: Philipp Rotmann, Director and Niklas Balbon, Research Associate, Global Public Policy Institute
Rapporteur: Harun Cero, Project Manager Regional Office Dialogue Southeast Europe, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung, Sarajevo
Recap from the workshops and discussion with Nils Schmid, Member of the German Bundestag
Moderation: Konstantin Bärwaldt, Head of Department for Global and European Policy, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung
Nicole Cardoch Ramos, State Secretary for Communication and Social Participation, Government of Chile
Olumide Abimbola, Founder and Director of the Africa Policy Research Institute
Katrin Bennhold, Senior Writer, The New York Times
Arif Havas Oegroseno, Deputy Foreign Minister of Indonesia
Lars Klingbeil, Chairman, Social Democratic Party Germany (SPD)
Moderation: Nana Brink, Journalist
Reception
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The Tiergarten Conference is the annual international foreign and security policy conference of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung. Since 2012, international experts and political decision-makers have come together every year in expert discussions and public events to analyse strategic issues and develop progressive options for action. With its public events, the Tiergarten Conference makes the results of these discussions accessible to a broad public and thus contributes to a differentiated debate on foreign and security policy in Germany. The Tiergarten - a place of international relations and the seat of the Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung's international work.
