Hungary elects 21 MEPs to the European Parliament by a proportional representation (PR) system, as a single constituency. This procedure creates a political competition that is different from the dynamics of Hungary's General Elections, which in recent years has been dominated by a fragmented opposition's weak attempts at cooperation in setting up viable electoral coalitions, on a seat by seat basis. In a fully PR system on the European level, however, a number of political parties saw chances of gaining seats without seeking an electoral coalition. The two exceptions are the continued 'red-and-green' formation made up of the Hungarian Socialists and of 'Dialogue', and the long-standing Christian-conservative coalition of the governing parties, Fidesz-KDNP.
Fidesz on Top of the Debate
The campaign agenda was largely, though not entirely, set by Fidesz. Instead of a fully developed manifesto, the governing party's programme focused narrowly on the topic of migration, calling for the abolition of the EU's refugee quotas and for the European Parliament to endorse an anti-migration leadership. In its campaign communication, Fidesz continues to claim that Brussels is involved in a conspiracy with other international liberal actors, including George Soros, who have an interest in an influx of Muslim immigrants.
This is in line with PM Viktor Orban's 'vision' for Europe and more specifically for the European People's Party to return to its core Christian values. Fidesz' membership in the EPP is currently suspended and many speculate that Orban would prefer to seek new and stronger coalitions with Europe's far right. Such propositions include a 'Eurosceptic alliance' with Italy's Deputy Prime Minister, Matteo Salvini, although recent official statements deny such intentions. From a broader strategy perspective, this is also a problem for the EPP, as it may well contribute to a weakening of its majority in the European Parliament, should Hungarian MEPs decide to switch (there are 13 Fidesz MEPs in the EPP). Orban does not endorse the EPP's Spitzenkandidat.
At the same time, the narrowness of the Fidesz programme created an opportunity for the opposition parties to put a range of other issues on the agenda. There is near universal agreement that greater EU competencies would be useful to sanction the non-transparent management of EU funds by the government through Hungary's membership of the European Public Prosecutor's Office (EPPO). 'Wage Union', European Minimum Wage, and 'European pensions' also remain on the agenda, calling for a Europe-wide redistribution of wealth, each with varying intensity. Other pro-EU policies range from concerted action on climate change to a call for a Federation of European states.
A Changing Left
The relative importance of each party on the left might be changing, the EP election results indicate. As a surprise, Democratic Coalition (DK, emerging since a split in 2010-2011 among the Hungarian Socialists) emerged as the strongest opposition party with a vote share of 16.19 per cent, followed by newcomer Momentum with 9.89 per cent. With these results, DK and Momentum overtook and slightly surpassed the positions previously held by the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) and the green LMP in the party system, at least on the European level. While DK identifies as a Social Democratic party, the programmatic position of Momentum is better described as 'centrist' or centre-left. Momentum will join ALDE in the European Parliament. An important question about the upcoming 2019 local elections is whether these two parties will be able to hold on to their new electoral support.
Another significant change in the electoral competition is Jobbik's split into a party that continues to gradually move to the centre, with a radical fringe that felt silenced by the 'centrist turn'. Competing on separate tickets, the new party 'Our Homeland' uses hard-line far-right rhetoric with references to inter-ethnic conflict and xenophobia, while Jobbik's programme is more a cautiously worded, containing conservative and anti-immigration agenda mixed with pro-EU elements. This follows the party’s 2018 General election rhetoric that aimed to present them as acceptable partners to the opposition parties in making electoral coalitions against Fidesz. The split may have contributed to a decline of Jobbik's (and the far right's), as hte party obtained a vote share of just over 6 per cent, resulting in a single EP seat. Our Homeland failed to secure enough votes for a seat (3.31 per cent).
What has not changed is Fidesz' enduring popularity, which suggests that the opposition's continued efforts to put accountability and corruption on the agenda, reaches only small segments of the citizenry. The aggregate results of the opposition parties are contrasted by a landslide win by Fidesz, 51.14 per cent, at a turnout of 43.36 per cent. Despite being below the EU average, this turnout figure follows a remarkably low turnout in 2014 of 28.92 per cent, lending higher legitimacy to the results.
Nothing New?
Nevertheless, in the post-election discourse, the implications of a structural change on the left are being discussed. In the lead up to the 2019 local elections, the opposition parties are in talks to present 'unity candidates' at selected locations to maximise the chances of winning. While key cities including the capital have had a record of presenting an MSZP or LMP candidate, DK and Momentum may use their European Elections results to get more leverage on these decisions. Currently, DK endorses an independent candidate. It is important to note, however, that these local races differ from the European PR race in many respects, and the importance of DK and Momentum might diminish. Incumbency advantage, experience and visibility may not favour emerging or 'newly emerging' parties. In rural Hungary, Jobbik may still be able to hold on to its supporters. And uniquely, the Budapest mayoral candidate will be appointed by a cross-party primary.