On June 11 and 18, French voters will elect the members of the 15th National Assembly of the 5th Republic. In the first round, the newly founded party "République En Marche" of President Emanuel Macron reached 32.32 per cent of the votes. Followed by "Les Républicains" (21.56 per cent),the "Front National" (13.2 percent) and "La France Insoumise" (11.02 percent. The Socialist Party scored 9.51 percent.
The turnout was with 48.7 per cent lower that at the last parliamentary election five years ago. The second round, which takes place on June 18, will be open to all candidates who have won at least 12.5 per cent of registered voters in the first round.
Since 2002, the legislative elections are held six weeks after the Presidential elections, both taking place every five years. This electoral calendar was designed to re-affirm the centrality of the Presidential election in the French political system and to subordinate the legislative elections to the Presidential election. The aim was to avoid the lack of a Presidential majority in the National Assembly, as French Presidents have experienced three “cohabitations” with National Assemblies that did not support them in the 1980s and 1990s.
The 2017 Presidential election has been characterized by three major results: the record-low level scores for the candidates of traditional parties (the socialist Benoît Hamon and the republican François Fillon), a record-high level scores for radical candidates (Marine Le Pen on the extreme-right and Jean-Luc Mélenchon on the extreme-left), and the victory of the candidate of a newly established political party: Emmanuel Macron and his party En Marche! Will this reshuffling of the political competition provide the newly elected President with a stable parliamentary majority or will he have to deal with a coalition government? After the first round it looks like Macron can count on a large majority in the National Assembly.
Under the 5th Republic never a centrist party such as “En Marche!”, which for the legislative elections has been relabeled “La République En Marche”, has obtained a majority in the National Assembly. However, nowadays two factors play in its favor: the lower turnout of legislative elections and the high fragmentation of the partisan system.
As in 2012, the turnout for the legislative elections is expected to be 20 points lower than in the Presidential election (77.7 per cent in the first round). This electoral demobilization will most likely have two consequences. On the one hand it will strengthen Macron’s party, the President’s party usually enjoys a popularity wave in the aftermath of the Presidential election, his voters remaining mobilized from one election to the other. On the other hand, participation will heavily drop among the youth and will be detrimental to La France Insoumise of Mélenchon and to a lesser extend to the Front National of Le Pen. Both candidates successfully reached out to voters who did not belong to their core group of supporters during the Presidential election, which is a heavily personalized, mediatized and nationalized election, but will probably fail to do so during the legislative elections due to the lower level of interest displayed by voters.
Then with an average of 13.6 candidates per constituency (+2 compared to 2012), the fragmentation of the political offer is on the rise, both on the left and on the right. Challenger parties (La République en Marche!, La France Insoumise and the Front National) are trying to capitalize on their good Presidential results while traditional parties (Parti Socialiste, Les Républicains, Parti Communiste and the Greens) are trying to defend their share of MPs. As a result of these dynamics there are fewer electoral alliances than in previous elections, and we may have fewer candidates’ withdrawing from the first to the second round. Contrary to the Presidential election where only the top two contenders move to the second round, in the legislative elections all candidates that obtain a score equal to 12.5 per cent of registered voters are allowed to move to the second round. Therefore the withdrawing of some candidates in support of another candidate best ranked in the first round is a key component of French legislative elections. Hence, the lack of willingness to make electoral alliances between the parties of the left or between the parties of the right, and the winner take-all logic of the electoral system is most likely going to favor the candidates of La République en Marche!
Thus, if polling trends and the result of the first round are confirmed Macron and his party may achieved the largest parliamentary majority since 1919 and will continue their disruptive effect on the French partisan system.