The 2018 Italian National Elections
Compared to 2013, the 2018 election campaign began in a quieter and calmer economic and social context, since the Italian political and economic crisis was less pronounced. In the campaign itself, no event or topic dominated the discussion. Parties mainly competed on economic measures that resonate well with voters (such as introducing a flat tax and a basic income). However, one dramatic event unfolded soon after the start of the campaign: on February 3, an extremist linked to the extreme right shot at immigrants in the town of Macerata. This racist attack, and the clashes between left- and right-wing extremists which followed, drew the political and media attention of the campaign to immigration and security issues.
The campaign focus on these issues could have played a crucial role in the success of the right-wing populist parties, and especially of Lega. While in the 2013 elections, Lega obtained 4.08 per cent of the vote, in 2018 it became the biggest party of the centre-right coalition, wining a vote share of 17.37 per cent. To a lesser extent, Fratelli d’Italia also obtained a good result, expanding its vote share from 1.95 per cent in 2013 to 4.35 per cent in 2018.
In addition to Lega, the other big winner of the 2018 elections is M5S – it became the biggest party, with its support increasing from 25.55 per cent in 2013 to 32.66 per cent in 2018. More than one third of Italian voters –especially those in the country’s south – opted for the populist party. Generally, the 2018 elections resulted in an upheaval of populist and anti-European forces.
Contrary to populist political forces, the left coalition experienced significant vote losses, with Partito Democratico (PD) losing more than two million votes. While in 2013 PD obtained 25.42 per cent of the vote, in 2018 it only won 18.72 per cent. The implications of this result is very serious, considering that in the first elections under the leadership of Renzi (the 2014 European Parliament Elections), PD obtained 40 per cent of the vote. Voters abandoning PD did not vote for other left wing parties: neither smaller parties of the centre-left coalition, nor the radical left Potere al Popolo managed to win parliamentary seats, while Liberi e Uguali obtained only 3.38 per cent of the popular vote. Acknowledging defeat, Renzi resigned from the position of party leader, though his decision will only come in force after the formation of the new government. Forza Italia (FI) also suffered losses in the 2018 elections - the party’s vote-share declined from 21.56 per cent to 14.01 per cent. As a result, Berlusconi lost the leadership of the right-wing coalition in favour of Lega leader Matteo Salvini. The electoral decline of FI was compensated by Lega’s good showing, which allowed the centre-right coalition to obtain the largest vote-share - 37 per cent of the vote.
Given these results, and the fact that no coalition obtained the number of seats necessary to gain a Parliamentary majority, it remains unclear which parties will take part in the next government. Both the centre-right coalition and M5S claim to have won the elections, with both Salvini and Di Maio declaring that they are ready to form political alliances based on the respect for their parties’ manifestos. The following three scenarios are possible: an alliance between M5S and PD; an alliance between centre-right coalition and PD, an alliance between M5S and Lega. All three options appear too difficult to materialise, given the ideological distance between PD and the two populist parties, especially on crucial issues such as immigration and European integration.
In a nutshell, the 2018 election results produced the image of a divided Italy, unified only by populism.